Designer Frames Outlet · Easton Digital

Q4 tracker: forecast vs actual

Day by day: the emails and texts going out, the forecast for spend, revenue and ROAS from last year's same day plus this year's growth, and the actuals next to it. Refreshed every morning.

Forecast = last year's comparable day × (1 + growth): revenue , spend . Blended ROAS = all site revenue ÷ all ad spend. New-customer ROAS = revenue from first-ever orders ÷ all ad spend. Greyed rows are still ahead.

Emails and texts: last year vs this year

Last year counted only through the weekday-matched day of the last complete day this year, so both columns cover the same stretch.

Send by send

How the numbers are built

Revenue and new customers

  • Revenue is every site order in Klaviyo (Placed Order), by Eastern-time day. It matches site revenue and runs within about 2% of Northbeam.
  • A new customer is a Klaviyo profile with no earlier order on record (history back to Dec 2021).
  • Northbeam's own first-time flag isn't used. Since the Oct 26 site migration it calls 98 to 99% of orders first-time, up from about 81% before, which would inflate new-customer ROAS.

Spend and forecast

  • Spend is Northbeam, all platforms summed (Google, Meta, Microsoft and any others with spend).
  • Comparable day: 364 days back through Dec 21 so weekdays, Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday line up; same calendar date from Dec 22 so Christmas and Dec 31 line up.

Sends

  • Campaign revenue and recipients come from Klaviyo's campaign report, so they use Klaviyo's attribution window. Last year's texts came from Attentive, with its own attribution, so compare them loosely.
  • Flows (welcome, cart, browse) aren't included. These are one-off campaigns only.
  • Recent sends keep collecting revenue for several days, so the last few rows will rise.